Federal scientists say a strong El Niño is now considered all but certain to develop this year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center announced there is a 97 percent chance El Niño conditions will reach “strong” or “very strong” levels during the three-month period ending in December. Forecasters also say there is an 81 percent chance the event will become “very strong.” For California, that could bring a wetter-than-normal winter, with the potential for prolonged periods of heavy rainfall. Officials warn the increased precipitation could raise the risk of flash flooding, mudslides, and landslides, particularly in Southern California, especially in areas scarred by recent wildfires. El Niño is also associated with higher-than-average temperatures on land and in the ocean, increasing the likelihood of heat waves. The outlook comes as sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean continue running well above normal this year.
